Blog Post

Thomas Cook - An Unavoidable Collapse

  • By Usman Ahmed
  • •
  • 23 Sep, 2019
  • •

our CEO gives his view of what it would mean to the airline and leasing industry and after affects of the collapse

600,000 Passengers stranded

150,000 UK Passengers stranded

22,000 Jobs lost

117 aircraft parked

£100 - £120 million in repatriation costs (est)

Another airline a historic British brand after trading for nearly 168 years crash landed last night. Its a sad demise of a brand that was usual sight on our high streets and major UK airports and international popular tourist destinations.

Reasons for collapse:

There are many, but the main factor is not learning from the 2011 near solvency, whilst the industry was changing fast and the old package holiday model was being challenged by the likes of EasyJet and Ryanair, Thomas Cook continued to look externally for funds to fix its problems and paid little attention to internal affairs.

Secondly, collapse of Monarch was a big warning and although it was known that Thomas Cook is also not stable, but this should have triggered emergency measures to stabilise the airline, revisit its business model and cut costs, review contracts and rationalise fleet, but it didn't happen, and the airline was still fixed on securing external help in the form of more debt.

What will happen now:

There is a very slim chance that the brand will survive. The day your aircraft stop operating the no-return clock starts, aircraft lessors will move in to impound their aircraft as soon as possible. This will leave Thomas Cook with handful of aircraft owned by the parent/airline, which are likely to be sold off to pay for the debts.

Low-cost airlines, other charter and scheduled operators flying the same routes will takeover and increase their share of the market. 

However, its the customers who will loose out, the fares are very likely to go up since there is one less competitor, as a result holidays will be more expensive, at the same time many airports/destinations/resorts who were dependent on Thomas Cook flights may struggle and eventually shutdown. Less options will mean more expensive holidays.

The airline industry will no doubt recover from this disaster, however, in the short term, aircraft lessors, financiers, aviation banks and investors in Thomas Cook will face an uphill challenge. For aircraft lessors, repossession is just one element of the recovery, many have financing commitments and will need to keep up with the debt payments, with no cash flowing in from leases, it will be a difficult period until these aircraft are placed again with another operator. 

Banks may recover some of the costs by selling the assets, the balance (possibly hundreds of millions) will be written off . Smaller banks may decide to leave the space, big ones may suffer short-term but continue to offer debt to airlines at higher cost.

Investors may move on, and those that were looking at the airline space for good returns will stay away. This is not a good news for long term sustainability of the airline industry.

I hope that others learn from this and this serves as a warning to operators, sometimes making small changes internally results in huge cost savings. We have reviewed many airlines and identified cost savings in ground operations, maintenance, contracts, fuel policy, leasing and finance. Sometimes it is difficult to note problems/mistakes, but an outsider may notice these immediately.

How we may be able to help:

Lessor/Banks:

we can assist with repossession, ferry and storage of the aircraft, as well as manage any maintenance work due to place the aircraft with next lessee. We can also help with inspections and valuations of the aircraft, engines and components.

Airlines:

Our team has experience of reviewing both small and large operators and have identified hundreds of millions of savings in various areas. We can provide benchmarking studies, so the airline can see their standing with other airlines in the region and aim to be as or more efficient than their competitors.

AIRCORE adds specialist Aircraft/engine management, storage and teardown services

By AIRCORE MARKETING • January 9, 2020

AIRCORE has launched ATOM® a unique aircraft and engine management package that has three tiers. Aircraft owners have the ability to customise their programme based on their requirements. The monthly management programme not only monitors utilisation and cashflow but also oversees technical database management, airworthiness, engine performance, shop visit forecast planning and management. 


The strategic partnerships have also enabled AIRCORE to manage engine inventory, supply quality used serviceable material, manage engine shop visits, carryout borescope inspections, provide power by the hour and exchange programmes as well as tear down of engines.


The aircraft teardown programme managed in Europe and the USA will provide multiple services including removal, repair, tagging and certification as well as storage and sales of components. The program is built on many years of experience of AIRCORE team members and its partner organisations and is focused on extracting highest value from end-of-life aircraft. The facilities have the hangars and tarmac space to store all types of aircraft, engines and parts.  


“We know that aircraft and engine owners have to deal with multiple suppliers throughout the active life of their asset and also talk to various parties to find end-of-life solutions. We decided to develop a unique programme which allows the owners to deal with one organisation that can offer management services from new delivery to end-of-life,” said Usman Ahmed chief executive officer of AIRCORE. “We are delighted to note that our engine services have already gathered a lot of interest, and we are developing unique engine management programmes (EMP) for our customers.”


The storage and management facilities are located in the UK, USA, Spain and Portugal. AIRCORE is already working on locations in the Middle East and hope to add another facility in the near future.

About AIRCORE AVIATION:

 AIRCORE is a global aviation solutions provider, with a strong focus on asset management services. We assist aircraft owners, airlines, lessors, financiers and investors to grow and manage their assets. The team has worked with the world’s leading aviation consultancies, airlines and lessors over the past 20 years, allowing AIRCORE to offer a unique blend of technical, commercial and valuation services within both the helicopter and fixed-wing sectors. 

Sohail A. Choudry, Joins AIRCORE as Chief Commercial Officer

By AIRCORE • January 10, 2018
AIRCORE are delighted to announce that Sohail Ahmed Choudry has joined as Chief Commercial Officer of AIRCORE. 

Sohail has been involved with the airport infrastructure design for over 10 years. He has worked on numerous civil engineering projects for UK airports including LHR and LGW. Also more recently he has been involved with upgrading of Kigali International airport and master planning of Rodrigues airport in Mauritius. Sohail has over 6 years of international project management experience in renewable energy as well. Sohail is a graduate in Aerospace technology.



About AIRCORE:

AIRCORE is a global aviation consultancy specialising in appraisals, aviation finance, risk advisory, asset management, airlines & MROs, services to investors and airport design & project management.

Headquartered in London (UK), AIRCORE is proud of the fact that its senior management has hands on experience in aviation industry,  having worked for airlines, consultancies, lessors, regulators and airport construction companies.

In addition to London, AIRCORE has affiliates and representatives in Australia, Europe, USA and Middle East. For information please visit www.aircoreaviation.com


David Crick, ASA Joins AIRCORE as Chief Operating Officer

By AIRCORE • January 10, 2018
AIRCORE is delighted to announce that David Crick has joined as Chief Operating Officer of AIRCORE.

David is a veteran in the aviation industry with more than 30 years of experience in air transportation and medical industry. He is an experienced appraiser and has inspected hundreds of commercial aircraft, business jets, helicopters and general aviation aircraft. David is also an expert in Helicopter Finance & leasing and is currently serving as the chair of finance & leasing committee at Helicopter Association International. 

David is an Accredited Senior Appraiser of American Society of Appraisers and serves as a Governor of the MTS discipline at the ASA.


About AIRCORE:

AIRCORE is a global aviation consultancy specialising in appraisals, aviation finance, risk advisory, asset management, airlines & MROs, services to investors and airport design & project management.

Headquartered in London (UK), AIRCORE is proud of the fact that its senior management has hands on experience in aviation industry,  having worked for airlines, consultancies, lessors, regulators and airport construction companies.

In addition to London, AIRCORE has affiliates and representatives in Australia, Europe, USA and Middle East. For information please visit www.aircoreaviation.com


AIRCORE - A New and Unique aviation solutions provider

By AIRCORE • January 9, 2018

AIRCORE Aviation is a new and unique solutions provider for the aviation industry and investors. AIRCORE will focus on providing bespoke services to clients at their doorstep with the philosophy of dedication + devotion + passion. The main services include:

  • Aircraft Appraisals for asset owners
  • Aviation Finance, risk advisory and asset management for banks and lessors
  • Business strategy, auditing, restructuring and benchmarking for airlines & MROs
  • Investment analysis and asset management for aviation Investors
  • Airport design and project management.

The CEO of AIRCORE, Usman Ahmed, says that:

"This is the start of an exciting journey for all part of AIRCORE team. Our core values dedication, devotion and passion  are not just mere words, we truly believe in them, and will strive to deliver the best value for our clients. Our focus will be on the journey and not the destination, as key to reaching the destination depends on preparedness for your journey. We will try to bring the 4th dimensional view, which we feel is what makes us unique in the aviation industry"


About AIRCORE:

AIRCORE is a global aviation consultancy specialising in appraisals, aviation finance, risk advisory, asset management, airlines & MROs, services to investors and airport design & project management. 

Headquartered in London (UK), AIRCORE is proud of the fact that its senior management has hands on experience in aviation industry,  having worked for airlines, consultancies, lessors, regulators and airport construction companies.

In addition to London, AIRCORE has affiliates and representatives in Australia, Europe, USA and Middle East. For information please visit www.aircoreaviation.com

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